Logika di Balik Perang Total Israel ke Gaza
Pembantaian Zionis Israel sejak 7 Oktober 2023 telah membunuh hampir tiga puluh ribu warga Gaza yang tak berdaya dan tak bersenjata. Hampir setengah yang tewas itu dari kalangan anak – anak dan Sebagian besarnya adalah warga sipil. Rumah – rumah, tempat ibadah, tempat pengungsian, dan fasilitas publik yang lain juga rata oleh serangan – serangan rudal Israel. Ada harapan saat terjadinya gencatan senjata di mana antara kedua belah pihak saling tukar menukar tawanan dan bantuan – bantuan masuk ke Gaza 24 – 30 November 2023. Namun, Israel melakukan serangan intensif kembali saat gencatan senjata berakhir baik melalui udara maupun darat. Serangan Israel belum memperlihatkan tanda – tanda berhenti meskipun kecaman dari banyak negara, gerakan sipil dan tokoh sudah banyak diperlihatkan. Afrika Selatan juga sudah mengajukan awal tahun 2024 ke Pengadilan Internasional (International Court of Justice) untuk memperkarakan Israel sebagai pelaku pelanggaran Genosida di Gaza (Corder, 2024). Pemerintah Zionis Israel telah berulang kali mengutarakan bahwa perang ini harus berakhir dengan hancurnya Hamas sehingga kelompok ini tidak punya kekuatan lagi yang bisa meneror Israel meskipun harus memakan waktu berbulan – bulan (NHK World, 2023). Yoav Gallant, Menteri Pertahanan Israel mengungkapkan “ “Hamas is a terrorist organization that built itself over a decade to fight Israel, and they built infrastructure under the ground and above the ground and it is not easy to destroy them,”… “It will require a period of time — it will last more than several months, but we will win and we will destroy them.”(Fabian & Staff, 2023). Saat terjadi gencatan senjata, Gallant menegaskan Kembali “There will be a short pause and then we will continue operating with full military power. We will not stop until we achieve our goals: the destruction of Hamas and bringing home the hostages from Gaza to Israel” (Reuters, 2023). Israel juga sudah mendesain rencana pemerintahan pasca perang di Gaza yaitu tidak akan ada lagi HAMAS di situ dan Israel yang akan mengontrol Gaza serta akan melakukan operasi pembersihan terhadap segala ancaman di Gaza terhadap Israel dalam berbagai bentuknya (Al Jazeera, 2024). Bukan hanya Israel tapi Amerika Serikat untuk pertama kalinya sejak perang terakhir tahun 1973 sangat terlihat serius menopang Israel dari berbagai sisi: di PBB, bantuan finansial dan militer termasuk mengerahkan kapal perangnya di laut Mediterania. Bahkan selama perang yang dimulai Oktober itu saja, AS telah mengajukan dua kali bantuan untuk Israel ke kongres AS (Associated Press, 2023; Lee, 2023). Pendekatan perang total yang dilakukan oleh Israel dalam perang ini mengindikasikan betapa seriusnya ancaman dari HAMAS dan betapa takutnya Israel saat HAMAS menjadi lebih kuat. Terlebih HAMAS hanyalah sebuah kelompok tapi mampu memberikan terapi kejut buat sistem pertahanan Israel bahkan menggemparkan politik domestik Israel.Bagi kepentingan strategis Israel di Timur Tengah, HAMAS dan kapasitasnya jelas adalah sebuah ancaman nyata yang jika tidak diaborsi habis – habisan maka akan menjadi alarm kematian bagi Israel dalam waktu dekat. Jika kita merunut ke politik Timur Tengah beberapa tahun terakhir ini, Israel dan AS terlihat lega setelah melakukan normalisasi dengan beberapa negara Arab: Bahrain, Uni Emirat Arab, Maroko dan Sudan. Potensi normalisasi dengan Arab Saudi juga semakin terbuka. Ini seolah menjadi angin segar bagi Israel bahwa musuh – musuhnya dalam level negara akan semakin berkurang dan peluang untuk meminimalisir musuh – musuh dari kelompok militant dapat ditangkal melalui Kerjasama Arab-Israel (Vakil & Quilliam, 2023). Israel memang sejak awal berdiri tahun 1948 sampai sekarang selalu tidak aman sebab dikelilingi oleh negara-negara musuh termasuk masyarakat yang antipati. Itulah sebabnya entitas zionis ini membangun negaranya dan segala bentuk kebijakan yang bertumpu pada kepentingan keamanan dan eksistensinya (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1969). Wajar jika ada rasa lega dan “menang” pasca normalisasi. Namun, semua impian itu buyar saat HAMAS dan Jihad Islam melakukan serangan di pagi hari. Israel yang terlihat kuat terlihat tak berdaya diinfiltrasi oleh ratusan pasukan pejuang Gaza. Israel tak menyangka, ditengah “euphoria” normalisasi, HAMAS ternyata memperkuat diri dan berhasil mematangkan strategi. Israel kaget, warganya berhamburan meninggalkan negara. Elit politik saling serang dan menyalahkan. Serangan bersejarah Sabtu 7 Oktober memberi pesan pada Israel bahwa perlawanan dan musuh tidak bisa betul-betul dihancurkan. Sehingga respon terhadap para musuh ini wajib perang semesta.Itulah mengapa, Netanyahu (2023), di hari serangan menyatakan kita sedang dalam kondisi perang. “Citizens of Israel, we are at war. Not an operation, not a round [of fighting,] at war! This morning Hamas initiated a murderous surprise attack against the state of Israel and its citizens” (Toi Staff, 2023). Hanya 6 hari pasca serangan Hamas, 6000 bom dengan berat 4000 ton diledakkan di Gaza. Menurut al-Jazeera (2023) bom itu sama jumlahnya dengan bom yang diledakkan AS di Afghanistan selama setahun (Al Jazeera, 2023). Hamas memang layak dianggap ancaman serius oleh Israel dan harus dihapuskan cepat atau lambat. Kelompok ini terbukti mampu memperkuat diri dengan kemampuan persenjataan yang bisa merepotkan Israel; mampu menyiapkan ribuan rudal sampai Tel Aviv, termasuk menembus sistem pertahanan Iron Dome Israel, dan mengacaukan komunikasi militer Israel. Ditambah kemampuan manajerial kelompok ini dalam menggalang bantuan logistik untuk membangun persenjataan, basis militer bawah tanah, dan berbagai pelatihan militer terhadap anak – anak muda Palestina (Nakhoul, 2023). Dalam konteks geopolitik, secara geografis wilayah kekuasaan Israeli sangatlah kecil, hanya 22.000 km persegi dengan lebar tersempitnya berjarak 15 Kilometer dan Sebagian besar tumpuan industri, aktifitas komersial dan sosial negara ini terpusat di daerah pantai sepanjang 100 km (Pinfold, 2023). Selain itu, jarak Gaza ke Tel Aviv saja hanya kisaran 72 km. Sementara HAMAS memiliki kekuatan rudal jarak pendek 8 km sampai mencapai Israel bahkan sampai lebih 200 km jaraknya (Champelli, 2023). Letak geografis yang kecil ini akan membuat Israel dan fasilitas strategisnya rentan serangan.Dalam pandangan Israel, saat Hamas pada perang kali ini mampu menembus Israel baik senjata maupun personilnya, maka jika tidak dimusnahkan secara total sampai ke akarnya, bisa jadi tahun – tahun ke depan HAMAS akan semakin kuat, Ini dapat berarti lonceng kehancuran bagi Israel. Inilah alasan dibalik strategi perang total tanpa henti Israel terhadap Hamas dan Gaza. Daftar Pustaka Al Jazeera. (2023, October 12). Israel says 6,000 bombs dropped on Gaza as war with Hamas nears a week. Al Jazeera. https://www-aljazeera-com.translate.goog/news/2023/10/12/israel-says-6000-bombs-dropped-on-gaza-as-war-with-hamas-nears-a-week
Netanyahu returns to Power, What to Anticipate?
Israel has just held the parliamentary election of 2022. Far-right parties won a majority seat in the Knesset and ousted the incumbent centrist coalition led by Yair Lapid. This situation may result in the projection of the return of Benjamin Netanyahu to power. Palestinian citizens and government will face a hard time during the Netanyahu-led government. His gains are prompted by the rise of far-right Israeli voters. However, his win might be expected by Middle Eastern countries as a balance of power with Iran. While his cabinet will more likely receive criticism from the US. The legislative election of 2022 prevented the Likud Party (Netanyahu’s party) or Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid’s party) from gaining the majority seat of the Knesset or 61 seats. However, Likud merged with Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit and two other ultra-orthodox parties gained 64 out of 120 seats in the Knesset. Otzma Yehudit’s leader, Itaman Ben-Gvir, is considered extreme far right for Israel’s far right. Once, he advocated for Arab Israelis (sometimes referred to as “Palestinians living in Israel”) to undergo a “Loyalty Test” to determine who is disloyal to their ancestral homeland. From here, Netanyahu’s return to power may complicate the relations between the Israeli government, Israeli Arabs, and the Palestinian Authorities. So, what may disadvantage Palestinians? As 4.5 million Palestinians living in the Palestinian Territories within the Occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, they are subject to Israeli Law and affected by the election. Since they are Palestinian citizens, they have no right to be represented in the Knesset, even in the law-making process for the region of Judea and Samaria. Back in 2020, Trump initiated the Trump Peace Plan or officially called “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People” which was announced by Trump and Netanyahu. This peace plan is criticized due to the zero involvement of any Palestinian representatives and the map of Israel with Palestinian enclaves. This map is more confusing than the current Palestinian authority boundaries within the Occupied West Bank. And today, Netanyahu pledged to legalize dozens of illegal settler outposts in the area, after meeting with Ben-Gvir. The rise of the extreme far right in Israel stimulates the victory of Likud and their allies and secures Netanyahu’s position to be the Israeli prime minister. Netanyahu has been cultivating his relations with the right extremist. And since 2021, Ben-Gvir and his party gained more support after frictions between Arabs and Jews who live In the same area within Israel proper after the hostilities in the Gaza area. This continued with various attacks from the Palestinians against Israeli settlers in the Occupied West Bank. The main campaign of the right-wing is the establishment of “law and order” in Israeli society. Many of the voters of the far-right parties are secular, upper middle class, young Israeli generations who are first-timer voters in the election. We can see the extremist, racist, and supremacist attitude when during the commemoration of 32 years of Rabbi Meir Kahane’s death Ben-Gvir was hooted by the sympathizers for his statement that he does not want to deport all Arabs. Meanwhile, the victory of Netanyahu and his allies is congratulated by the president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan. The president is also inviting Netanyahu. Netanyahu stated after he received the invitation to UAE by saying “Sheikh bin Zayed invited me to visit his country so that we can advance our relations together. I thank him for the conversation and the excellent relationship between us”. This attitude shows the acceptance of Netanyahu by the Israeli Middle Eastern close friends as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also congratulated him. Erdogan and Netanyahu talked about the continuation of cooperation between Israel and Turkey to bring peace and stability to the Region. On the other hand, normalization of bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia might be an option for Netanyahu. These countries see more prospective cooperation in the region which Netanyahu will be seen to strengthen the balance of power between the Gulf Arab States and Iran. However, Benjamin Netanyahu will receive a reaction from Israel’s cross-Atlantic ally, the United States. Even though US President Joe Biden congratulates Netanyahu, Biden’s administration and Democratic Party might disagree or boycott far-right ministers that Netanyahu appoints in the future. Two of the major Jewish groups in the US, the Anti-Defamation League, and the American Jewish Committee, have voiced their concerns along with the Democratic Congressman Brad Sherman. Sherman stated that he urges Israeli political leaders to ostracize extremists like Itamar Ben-Gvir whose outrageous views run contrary to Israel’s core principles of a democratic and Jewish state. In conclusion, Israeli legislative election just resulted in the triumph of Benjamin Netanyahu with his far-right alliance defeating a more centrist Yair Lapid. The win is inseparable from the rise of far-right secular younger generations in Israel. This situation disadvantages Palestinian citizens and worries Arab citizens of Israel. At the same time, Gulf Arab leaders and Turkish leaders are more likely in favor of Netanyahu as Israeli Prime Minister to create a balance of power with Iran. But this may concern the US, particularly in the Democrat’s administration.